Dig & Clean Item Values: Rarity Formula and Sell-or-Display Evidence
Last updated: 2026-08-20 · Play on Roblox ↗
Across the item cards we could reconcile, rarity odds are the strongest predictor of displayed value.
Every cleaned item card shows a name, weight, condition and rarity as
1 in N. We compared the readable odds and displayed values rather than
assuming which other card fields drive the price.
The original observed data
| Item | Rarity | Condition | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duck | 1 in 30 | OK | 486 |
| Dino Skull | 1 in 2,937,020 | Perfect | 1.5M |
| Old Tank | 1 in 9,574,469 | Perfect | 3.4M |
| Frozen Mammoth | 1 in 17,579,022 | Great | 5.2M |
The rarest item in this dated four-card set is about half a million times rarer than the Duck, but its displayed value is about 10,700 times higher. Value rises more slowly than the rarity-odds number.
The relationship
Fitting the original points gives:
value ≈ 45 × (rarity odds)0.7
| Item | Actual value | Formula predicts | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duck | 486 | 482 | −0.9% |
| Dino Skull | 1,500,000 | 1,488,011 | −0.8% |
| Old Tank | 3,400,000 | 3,400,000 | 0.0% |
| Frozen Mammoth | 5,200,000 | 5,200,000 | 0.0% |
Evidence boundary: the exponent was derived from the two rarest original items. The Duck, five orders of magnitude less rare, then landed within 1% of the prediction without being used to build the fit. Later, an independent 22-card check and the Update 2 extension on the rarest-items page also landed within ±5%. This remains a footage-fitted rule rather than a datamined constant.
August 19–20 verification reads
Every row in this table is a single-recording card read from S7 or S8. All 19
accepted rows fall within ±5% of 45 × odds^0.7; the displayed error is
the supplied formula comparison.
| Item | Source | Condition | Rarity | Displayed value | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dino Skull | S8 | MINT | 1 in 5,115,858 | 2.2M | +1.9% |
| Emerald | S8 | MINT | 1 in 7,220,000 | 2.8M | +1.8% |
| Old Tank | S8 | MINT | 1 in 46,924,218 | 10.5M | +0.5% |
| Frozen Mammoth | S8 | Good | 1 in 10,002,902 | 3.5M | +2.3% |
| Moai Head | S8 | Perfect | 1 in 4,812,200 | 2.1M | +2.2% |
| Crashed Helicopter | S8 | MINT | 1 in 21,850,000 | 6.1M | +1.3% |
| Piano | S8 | Good | 1 in 623,556 | 516.5k | −0.8% |
| Emerald | S7 | OK | 1 in 1,056,704 | 740.4k | +0.1% |
| Poseidons Trident | S7 | Great | 1 in 39,600,000 | 9.3M | +0.8% |
| UFO | S7 | OK | 1 in 95,254,190 | 17.2M | +0.6% |
| Nuke | S7 | OK | 1 in 13,076,279 | 4.3M | +0.3% |
| T-Rex Skeleton | S7 | OK | 1 in 57,033,502 | 12M | +0.8% |
| Leviathan Skull | S7 | Perfect | 1 in 660,000,000 | 67M | +0.3% |
| Sapphire Skull | S7 | Great | 1 in 1,781,882,796 | 134.3M | +0.4% |
| Angel | S7 | OK | 1 in 3,190,025,989 | 202M | +0.2% |
| Sphinx | S7 | Great | 1 in 11,000,000,000 | 480.5M | +0.4% |
| Submarine | S7 | Good | 1 in 24,700,000,000 | 846.4M | +0.1% |
| Sphinx | S7 | MINT | 1 in 71,108,866,794 | 1.7B | +4.5% |
| Submarine | S7 | MINT | 1 in 137,233,035,794 | 2.8B | +0.5% |
The names Sphinx, Submarine, Sapphire Skull, Leviathan Skull, T-Rex Skeleton, Moai Head, Crashed Helicopter and Poseidons Trident were seen in current footage. The reviewed footage does not identify which names, if any, correspond to Update 2's changelog line “4 New Items”, so this guide does not assign them to that line.
Polishing checks from S7
S7 supplied two more before-and-after sequences. Each sequence is a single-recording read:
| Item | Before | Intermediate | After | Observed change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sphinx [87,747.5KG] | Perfect · 1 in 32,934,633,031 · 1B | — | MINT · 1 in 71,108,866,794 · 1.7B | Rarity odds ×2.16 |
| Submarine [179,591.1KG] | Good · 1 in 24,700,000,000 · 846.4M | Perfect · 1 in 31,920,691,430 · 1B | MINT · 1 in 137,233,035,794 · 2.8B | Two observed polish steps |
The formula remains consistent at every displayed step in these two sequences. The Sphinx and final Submarine cards also appear in the verification table above.
Excluded cards from the same reads
A handful of readable cards in S7 and S8 were excluded. One Longship and one Midnight Diamond card contradicted both the formula and other cards of the same items. The exact odds 1 in 31,920,691,430 and 1 in 137,233,035,794 also appeared on cards of more than one different item and weight in S7. The reviewed footage does not explain that duplication; a per-type condition table or a transcription artifact are possibilities rather than established explanations. We exclude the reads we cannot reconcile.
What the exponent means
Because the exponent is below 1, value has diminishing returns on the rarity-odds number. Doubling that number raises the formula value by about 62%. In practice, throughput upgrades can therefore compete with pure luck: several moderately rare finds may out-earn one jackpot.
Museum evidence is version-dated
The August 8 recording showed museum display cards with a per-second rate:
| Display item | Rarity | Income/s | ÷ rarity0.7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duck [2KG], OK | 1 in 22 | 391/s | 45.0 |
| Bear [4.2KG], Great | 1 in 80 | 965/s | 45.1 |
| Sunglasses [0.1KG], MINT | 1 in 147 | 1.4K/s | 42.7 |
| Bear [11.1KG], Perfect | 1 in 500 | 3.9K/s | 50.6 |
| Bear [3.3KG], Good | 1 in 244 | 1.1K/s | 23.5 |
Four of those five dated cards land between 42.7 and 50.6, close to the sell-value coefficient. The Good Bear is the outlier at 23.5; that one card does not establish why it differs.
The August 19 S7 recording showed a different presentation: 16 discrete tourist payment events, from +4.8M¢ at 11:21 through +623.4M¢ at 13:57, with no per-second tick rate shown in that recording. The footage reviewed through August 20 does not establish whether Update 1's plot rework changed the income mechanic or whether per-second cards and lump-sum tourist payments coexist. The museum guide keeps both dated observations together.
Weight in the accepted sample
Within the August 8 museum-card sample, weight predicted income less closely than rarity did: the 0.1KG Sunglasses showed 1.4K/s, above the 4.2KG Bear at 965/s, while also carrying the larger rarity-odds number. This is a sample result, not a universal weight rule.
The dated collection read
The August 8 collection UI showed 55 items in total. That recording caught a player moving from 31/55 to 35/55, consistent with a counter for distinct item types found in that version.
Related
- Museum guide — dated income displays, tourist payments and plot expansion
- Rarest items — the 22-card and Update 2 formula extensions
- Gear upgrades — what to spend money on
- Money guide — the earning loop and cash sinks